Friday, April 5, 2024

The Mathematics of Truth

". . . we seem to have a strong urge to root out the fundamental connections between cause and effect. We hate the idea that events are happenstance. Happily, however, cause and chance are not mutually exclusive. They merely have a more complex relationship than people previously thought. 

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* Probable truth relies on statistical arguments to weigh which of several possibilities is more likely to be true. When something must be proven beyond a reasonable doubt, just what does that mean? What level of doubt is acceptable? One in twenty? One in a trillion?

*Many legal and scientific arguments rely on logical truth, which is based on the belief that following clear rules of deduction always leads to unambiguous conclusions. If x, then y. Logical arguments are supposed to make sense. Truth is supposed to emerge through the power of reason.

*Eventually, lawyers have to present their cases before juries of peers--just as scientists submit their work to peer review. This is an example of truth by consensus, in which informed people (experts or juries, or both) evaluate evidence and come to an agreement.  Frequently, these agreements are temporary coalitions, later overruled by new insights or information. Scientific truth, like legal truth, is less a collection of facts than a running argument. The difference is legal truth has to come to a conclusion quickly."

 

K.C. Cole, The Universe and the Teacup, Harcourt Brace & Company, New York, 1998, pg 126-127   

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