Projected Growth In Electricity Demand

An article in the September 30 edition of the Wall Street Journal goes into some of the generalities of what is likely to be a huge demand crunch in electrical power brought about by the construction of AGI data centers in the US. According to the article Goldman Sachs predicts that 47 gigawatts of power production will be needed just to supply the new data centers expected to be on-line by 2030. Before expanding the infrastructure required to supply the increased demand, power companies want assurance that the volumes and prices thereof will be guaranteed, something the data center mavens don't wish to do. 

The US government, through the Inflation Reduction Act and other programs, is deeply involved in subsidizing future electrical production, especially via tax credits. This is a Whig operation. Just as the early 19th century Whigs and their "American System" used federal income, mostly tariffs and land sales, to reward their cronies, the current federal government is operating in a similar fashion. No one can know or predict if the value produced by the tech business is worth the expense or even necessary at all. Furthermore, if humongous data centers are to be the key to the continued existence of the Yankee culture and economic growth shouldn't it be profitable for them to be privately financed? If a private interest needs huge amounts of power to operate its business shouldn't it also expect to construct a generating station of its own nearby? Regulated utilities aren't meant to feed huge percentages of their output to single customers. Supposedly private solar and wind power facilities are able to sell excess power to the utility that supplies them. Couldn't the data centers do so as well?  

Ultimately, as Paul Feyerabend pointed out:    “In a democracy scientific institutions, research programmes, and suggestions must therefore be subjected to public control, there must be a separation of state and science just as there is a separation between state and religious institutions, and science should be taught as one view among many and not as the one and only road to truth and reality.”

Complicating the situation is the simultaneous effort to eliminate hydrocarbon based power production in favor of "renewables". As projected, all hydrocarbon based generation will be replaced with wind and solar in a relatively short period of time.

As the West slithers toward a socialism run by the elites and financed by the proles, it resembles nothing so much as the great failed Soviet "5 Year Plans" that were so ridiculed by the Cold War Yankees.  

Brian Jeffrey Raymond Gets Thirty Years

Perhaps the most contemptible individual ever in the employ of the federal government has been sentenced to thirty years behind bars. Brian Jeffrey Raymond, 48, pleaded guilty to four counts of sexual offenses among those committed over a period of 14 years that included more than 500 instances of druggings and rapes as well as videos of his helpless victims.

There's probably no lesson to be learned from this sad story other than that a huge capacity for evil can exist in a human being. 

 

 

The Real Reason For Mass Migrations

The affluent areas of the West are being over run by migrants from the Fertile Crescent and adjacent areas. They move because after viewing American and European cinema and television it's obvious that being a resident, legal or otherwise, in a place like Omaha is better in some ways than living in Caracas, Port-au-Prince or Barranquilla.

Humanitarians, the Lutheran Church, for instance, actually send air plane tickets to US cities for African governments to issue to random citizens. They feel that all things being equal these migrants will have a better life in the US than they will in the place where they were born and raised.

The secondary effects of migration on the target country seem to be ignored or minimized. Being allowed into a large, wealthy environment is a great opportunity for criminals already in legal jeopardy in their own country. Somewhere else is a new opportunity for them to practice their craft. 

The above are all factors in the migrant phenomenon but they're not the basic cause, which is deflation and, more important, fixed asset devaluation. Business leaders are concerned that the declining birth rates in developed countries mean that in the not-so-distant future populations will decline without immigration. Problem number one with population shrink is a fall in the value of housing stock and less housing construction. Housing rental rates will plummet. While the 2007 housing bubble created financial havoc in the country the remedy was quickly assumed to be construction of apartment complexes, where the mortgage payer is a corporation and if tenants don't pay the rent they can be evicted without onerous and expensive mortgage foreclosure. But that's only part of the picture.

If corporate profits are to grow, so must the population of consumers. Even if fertility were to remain at a replacement level it wouldn't be sufficient to support the steady economic growth of a hyper-capitalist society. The value of fixed assets would decrease. In that case it will be more difficult or impossible to use those assets for loan security. Borrowed money, "leverage", predicated on future profits, is a key feature of capitalism. The migrants aren't needed in the production process, which is taken over more and more daily by mechanization and robotics but instead as consumers. The most mysterious part of the equation is where these new migrants are going to acquire the funds needed to become effective consumers.

So the failure of women to reproduce means that immigrants are needed to supply the mothers that produce more children that buy things. Oswald Spengler predicted all this from the analysis of its occurrence in the past. French historian Jean Gimpel saw parallels in the era of medieval Europe and the current situation in the US.

It's not to say that human life won't continue. But it will be much different than what we experience now.       

The Mass Migrations

After a few digressions Eugyppius gives us his analysis of the migrant issue that is turning German politics upside down. He is correct in that the "traffic light" coalition that currently has the control of parliament is uninterested in solving the problem unless it is a negative in elections.

That seems to now be the case. With their many elections, polls and parties the Krauts are always in a political ferment. German public opinion has come to the realization that a massive influx of migrants from Afghanistan, Syria, Pakistan and other Mideast Edens can't be supported by the economy or culture. Particularly sobering is the scale of migrant crime in the country, knife attacks and rapes. 

This has led to a growing percentage of the population to pay more heed to the supposedly "far right wing" Alternative for Deutschland's call for addressing an invasion of generally Muslim hordes. Even the new, leftist BSW party has attracted electoral attention with the same line of thinking. Now that the numbers are starting to add up some changes will need to be made if the Social Democrat, Green and Free Democrat coalition is to remain in power. They are, belatedly and in the face of real opposition, being forced to make policy changes that they had endorsed for years and, in fact, are contrary to EU requirements.

The US is in a similar dilemma. Unfortunately, the elements of the US government include only two parties that willing share power with few real policy differences. Electoral arguments are ordinarily about the personalities and histories of candidates and their social "identities". There's a mass superficiality that markets candidates for office like laundry detergent or toothpaste. The goal is to not offend large donors, which makes election campaigning a huge and lucrative business in the US of A.

While much attention is paid to the invasion across the southern border, neither of the two meaningful parties are willing to speak out against it any cogent manner. The real issue is that federal laws are being broken by both the migrants themselves and the government. As an example, all males aged 18 to 26 resident in the US are required to register with the Selective Service System. Failure to do so is a felony. The punishment is severe. Statistically we must realize that there have been many violations of this law. But we have heard nothing of its enforcement when it could be a major factor in deterring illegal migrants. This is because it's of no consequence for the two major parties to ignore it. And nobody from the mastodon media has bothered to ask the current US Attorney General for the Department of Justice position on the matter.No other parties are large enough to siphon off votes that would effect an election result.

In a parliamentary government, where there are multiple parties have differing ideas, coalitions are needed in order to govern. Laws must be respected and the wishes of minorities as well. That's what's happening in Germany. 

And Nuclear Weapons?

After Saturday's meeting of the NATO military committee in Prague, Czech Republic, its chairman, Admiral Rob Bauer of the Netherlands, pointed out in a press briefing that Ukraine has the right to extend its military activities as far into Russia as it deems fit. This seemed to be the attitude of most of the military figures in attendance. 

That concept certainly seems logical on its face and has been an accepted one internationally for many generations. The entire Ukraine/Russia confrontation being limited to the disputed Donets Basin is very strange. 

But what would its extension mean, ultimately? Russia could probably destroy much of Ukraine in short order if those in charge wished. NATO would then be required to respond. As everyone knows, at some point a line may need to be crossed that will put nuclear weapons into play. The population of the US will be put at risk in addition to those of Europe. That risk could mean death and destruction at a level unprecedented in world history, The very existence of nuclear arsenals is meant, according to Herman Kahn, to prevent their use. Their employment would be a philosophical as well as military failure.

Perhaps the mavens at the US State Department and others with an influence on international diplomacy have run out of thoughts on how to resolve this situation with the least possible damage. Maybe it's time to discover a way of settling international disputes without covering the world in radioactive ashes. Instead of the US government sending jillions of dollars to research universities to come up with a way to use hydrogen to power over-the-road trucks and solar energy to operate AI data centers they could pay to gather together some deep thinkers and use them to push the world back from the brink.        

Elephant Pizza

Amid a serious drought the government of Zimbabwe has decided to cull about 200 of its approximately 100,000 elephants, killing them, drying the meat and distributing it to locations most affected by failed crops. The plan is to dispatch the elephants in areas where they have created the most problems for the human population.

 pngtree.com

Even though there is a world-wide glut of food grains maybe it will be more economical to butcher a local pachyderm than ship in an equally caloric amount of wheat, soy beans or rice. 

Join The American Climate Corps!

 "This is a case where conscience and convenience cross paths, where dealing with this existential threat to the planet and increasing our economic growth and prosperity are one in the same. When I think of climate change... I think of jobs."

 

President Joe Biden

Before signing Executive Actions on Tackling Climate Change, Creating Jobs, and Restoring Scientific Integrity (Jan. 27, 2021)

 

 When Volkswagen had problems with adapting to climate change and economic conditions, they also thought about jobs, eliminating them by closing plants, the first thing all corporations do when expenses go up and profits go down.

 The American Climate Corps appears to be a post-modern version of the depression era Civilian Conservation Corps. That FDR administration effort wasn't actually intended to conserve anything, it was a program to remedy unemployment in the midst of a savage depression. 

The Biden/Harris scheme involves paying a rather small hourly wage to successful applicants with the possibility of a pathway to coveted federal employment and other benefits after their training period.

While there's been much publicity over the initiation of the Corps, evidently little of note has emerged of tangible results so far. Wikipedia supplies what details are available.  

News From The White House On Midwest Renewable Energy

According to Reuters, this is what somebody at the White House, maybe Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack, had to say about renewable energy in the Upper Midwest:  

 

Sept 5 (Reuters) — President Joe Biden's administration on Thursday said the U.S. will spend $7.3 billion from 2022's Inflation Reduction Act to fund clean energy projects helmed by rural electric cooperatives.

The 16 funded projects will reduce energy costs and increase reliability for rural Americans, who tend to pay more for energy, the White House said.

The first project will allocate nearly $573 million to Dairyland Power Cooperative in La Crosse, Wisconsin, for four solar installations and four wind power installations in Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, and Illinois.

"One in five rural Americans will benefit from these clean energy investments, thanks to partnerships with rural electric cooperatives like Dairyland. Put simply, this is rural power, for rural America," said agriculture secretary Tom Vilsack in a statement.

 

Other first-round selected projects in the upper Midwest to receive funds include:

• Basin Electric Power Cooperative, Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota. With this funding, Basin Electric Power Cooperative will procure both additional renewable energy generation and enhance existing cooperative-owned renewable assets, which are expected to total over 1,400 megawatts across Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota.
• Great River Energy, Minnesota, North Dakota, and Wisconsin. This New ERA investment will be used by Great River Energy and its member-owners to procure 1,275 megawatts of renewable energy across rural portions of Minnesota and North Dakota. These projects include large-scale wind energy projects, distributed renewable energy projects, and innovative demand side management investments that complement their existing portfolio.
• Minnkota Power Cooperative, North Dakota and Minnesota. This New ERA investment will support Minnkota Power Cooperative’s pursuit of a carbon capture and storage project (Project Tundra) as well as the procurement of 370 megawatts of wind energy in North Dakota.
• The projects, funded by the IRA's Empowering Rural America (New ERA) program, will prevent more than 43 million tons of greenhouse gas pollution annually and support more than 4,500 permanent jobs and 16,000 construction jobs, the White House said.
  
  

  Rural electric cooperatives serve 42 million people, according to the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association.

  The administration in August said it was investing $2.2 billion in overhauling the nation's power grid, which has been pressured by extreme weather events even as data centers demand more power.

  Biden was set to announce the funding in Westby, Wisconsin, on Thursday alongside Vilsack.

  ----------------------------------------------------------------
  

  Project Tundra is the addition of a carbon capture facility to the Milton R. Young Power Station near Center, N.D. Those involved say that the it will capture up to 4 million tons of despicable CO2 annually or 11,000 tons daily or 458 tons per hour. 

  It seems that the possible problems with the project have been solved.

  Corporate heavy-weights like Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Peter Kiewit and the Energy and Environmental Research Center are doing their thing. 
  

Incompetence

It seems that in a society where advancement is predicated on merit there seems to be an astonishing amount of incompetence. This is especially the case when one considers the scientific and technological advances that enable the solution of some very unique and difficult problems. 

What brings this thought to mind is the current situation on the International Space Station and the two astronauts marooned there by problems with Boeing's Starliner spacecraft. The engineers responsible for the project weren't under any particularly frenzied rush to complete the testing before the launch and probably have the personnel, materials and equipment for a successful trip. What went wrong? 

Sadly, that's simply the most obvious sign of the growing pool of incompetence we swim in. The powers that be don't seem to be able to accurately count the votes in the elections meant to produce our "democracy". Highways are repaved at astonishingly short intervals and bridges collapse, why?

The most obvious reason for ineffective solutions to  problems is that "shit happens", unpredictable conditions pop up and derail the most carefully engineered projects. Perhaps the planning and implementation are influenced by factors other than unobserved snags. It's possible but unlikely that somewhere in the pipeline sabotage may be taking place. That was the Soviet excuse, wreckers. Isn't it possible that the general growth in social and technological complexity has revealed that incompetence is at the root of many failures? Aren't decision makers at the highest levels of politics, government and business, as well as their lackeys, guilty of initiating or approving what are ultimately failed efforts at problem solving? That certainly must statistically  be the cause of some expensive disasters. The real source of technological and social catastrophes is incompetence.

A common apology for failure is inadequate budgeting. There wasn't enough funding available to do the project right. So it was done as well as possible under the financial circumstances.

While insufficient funding hampers many plans, no amount of money can eliminate incompetence. Evidently the educational system that produces the expertise in scientific research, engineering, biochemistry, finance and administration isn't able to produce people with the necessary skills to successfully solve problems in these now complex fields. Billions are being spent on AI large language systems that will ultimately be based on what is probably bad information. Maybe it would be wiser to improve or even redesign an educational system that's largely patterned after a 14th century Italian and German model that served its purpose well in an era when no one knew that there was such a thing as bacteria. Education at all levels, from kindergarten to post-graduate studies, needs to be brought up to date.          

A Major Whig Event

An American corporation that began operations as a manufacturer of consumer refrigeration equipment and then moved along to the electronic components of the new domestic kitchen microwave and eventually became one of the largest US military contractors with 185,000 employees worldwide has been "fined" by the US State Department for releasing confidential information to China, Russia and other potential US adversaries.

RTX, the company that has as subsidiaries aircraft engine manufacturer Pratt & Whitney, Collins Aerospace and Raytheon, each of whom is a major military contractor, and had revenue of $68.92 billion in 2023 admitted to violations of the US International Traffic in Arms Regulation or ITAR. In the years between 2017 and 2023 the firm was accused of committing 750 such violations. Since all these involved confidential information,  specifics regarding them are sketchy. The crucial point is that Collins Aerospace, for instance, sent technical information to Chinese contractors to use in construction of printed wiring boards for use in US military aircraft. Obviously, either Collins couldn't find American companies capable of producing those items or found that Chinese suppliers would do it for less.

Ultimately, the State Dept. and RTX agreed on a fine of $200 million, $100 million of which would be retained by RTX to spend on programs to prevent these problems from arising in the future. We don't know if any RTX management personnel or employees of their subsidiaries were disciplined or cashiered. There's no word on termination of military contracts. Nobody appears to have been sent to prison.

 

photo courtesy Collins Aerospace

 Troy Brunk, President, Collins Aerospace

 

In China or other Asian countries a failure like this would be so serious that those deemed responsible would be likely to disappear for an extended period of time, maybe forever, and never be eligible for a responsible position again. It's of note that an American who walks out of a C-store without paying for his liter of Mountain Dew and bag of Doritos will be in more trouble than an executive of RTX who might be a critical link in forwarding top secret information to a potential adversary. The leading Whigs are immune to that kind of responsibility.